The climatology of extreme wildfires in Portugal, 1980–2018: Contributions to forecasting and preparedness

Available research has extensively examined the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-weather regime in Portugal, but a comprehensive climatology extreme wildfires is still under development. This study calls for different strategies and scales analysis aiming to describe relationships between medium low troposphere weather conditions severe fire behaviour mainland 1980 2018. In particular, critical thresholds that can contribute operational forecasting know-how short time ranges are presented. We updated general trends with new, longer daily burned area series developed method identifies Extreme Wildfire Periods (EWP) form basis climate analysis. Synoptic using Circulation Weather Types (CWT) showed northeasterly easterly directional flows significantly associated EWP produce most conditions. The four main CWT related driven from anticyclones over eastern Atlantic Azores British Isles. However, situations also be regulated by marginal presence both summer EWP: systems located west northwest Iberia carrying air masses south quadrant catastrophic events. Regarding antecedent climate, results indicate coincident meteorological drought, whether weak or intense, necessary not sufficient condition development an EWP. An increasing relevance water stress shorter intervals preceding EWP, order days weeks, apparent. Following these results, fine dead fuel moisture transitions Portuguese landscapes computed promising predictive content model. Finally, methods used summoned detailed starting unusual synoptic circulation.